'07 Preview: Crew looking to go from worst to first

Soccer Betting Lines

04/05/2007 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's pretty obvious that the Columbus Crew would like to improve on its 2006 season. Last season, the Crew finished with the worst record in Major League Soccer at 8-15-9 in head coach Sigi Schmid's first season at the helm.

"Last year was disappointing," he said. "It was a year that we were bringing players together. We kept acquiring players throughout the year and with the amount of injuries that we had, we never established any cohesion."

In 2007, Schmid has a lineup that he thinks can compete because it is relatively injury free and has had a chance to mesh during preseason training.

"The players are here now," Schmid said. "We aren't gathering as many players. They are getting a chance to play together and getting a chance to know each other in the preseason at a much higher level than they did last year. If we can avoid the injuries we feel pretty confident in some of the attacking balance that we have been able to assemble."

The main attacker that has been added is forward Andy Herron, Chicago's leading scorer last season with nine goals and an assist. The Crew were able to pry him away from the Fire by offering up their first round pick in the 2007 MLS SuperDraft (number two pick overall).

"Andy Herron was a great addition for sure," Schmid said.

Along with the addition of Herron, the Crew have Ricardo Virtuoso, Joseph Ngwenya, Eddie Gaven and Jacob Thomas healthy and in the fold from day one.

"Virtuoso is now back for a whole season," Schmid said. "He joined us in midseason (last year) and wasn't really healthy until the last five games. Having Ngwenya here from day one instead of coming in at midseason and having Thomas healthy from the outset will also be a big help. He had to come from playing a European season last year straight into our season and never really got healthy. Eddie Gaven is also here now in preseason instead of joining us right before the season."

Young forwards Jason Garey and Kei Kamara also have another year of action under their belts, which will only help the Crew.

"All of those things together make us a better offensive team because we are all here at the start now with another year of experience," Schmid said.

One of the Crew's main goals in 2007 will also be to boast an improved midfield to go along with, what they think, is an improved attack.

"We think we have improved ourselves in the midfield with the acquisition of Danny O'Rourke among other players," Schmid said. "Ned Grabavoy and Duncan Oughton are here from day one. Improved play from the middle of the midfield, doing a better job of controlling the tempo of the game and improved offensive production are some things we need to establish."

O'Rourke was brought in on draft day in a trade with Toronto FC that also brought in goalkeeper Will Hesmer in exchange for a partial allocation.

"We expect Danny O'Rourke to be key in our midfield," Schmid said. "He is really the guy for us, the ball winner, the guy that is going to recover the ball for us."

Hesmer, who has been battling a hamstring injury in preseason, is in a three- man competition with Andy Guenbaum and Bill Gaudette to be the club's starting goalkeeper.

"I am very happy with the overall talent level of our goalkeepers," Schmid said. "Gaudette has vastly improved in his third year here in Columbus. Hesmer has had a hamstring injury and has trained the least, but in the time that he has trained he is somebody we are very happy with. He is somebody we have to wait to get healthy. It is an open competition among those three but it is going to be like it is with the forwards, the player who is in form is going to play."

With question marks in goal, in the midfield and up top this preseason, the steadying influence figures to be the backline.

Veteran Frankie Hejduk will team up with Rusty Pierce as the outside backs while Chad Marshall and Marcos Gonzalez will probably team up in the center.

"We played pretty well defensively in that area last year but if we can score some more goals at the other end of the field it will make it a little bit easier for our defense to play well," Schmid said.

If the Crew can stay healthy, mesh as a unit and peak at the right time, a dramatic improvement in 2007 doesn't seem out of the question.

"For us, the group that gets on the field and starts winning and producing good results when the regular season starts, those are the guys that are going to be playing," Schmid said.

Those questions will start to be answered when the Crew host Red Bull New York on April 7 to open the season.

"We have instilled the mindset that winning is a habit and losing is one as well this preseason," Schmid said. "We have won eight preseason games with only one loss (as of March 26) so if we can keep some semblance of that I will be very happy."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.