Cassell's huge fourth helps Celts soar over Hawks

Basketball Betting Lines

04/12/2008 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sam Cassell scored 15 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter, and the Boston bench sparked a huge fourth quarter run as the Celtics topped Atlanta, 99-89, preventing the Hawks from clinching a playoff berth.

Kevin Garnett notched a game-high 24 points for the Celtics, who won for the ninth time in their last 10 games. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen each scored 14 for Boston, while Glen Davis had eight points and 10 rebounds.

Joe Johnson poured in 21 points and handed out eight assists for the Hawks, losers of three of five. Al Horford contributed 17 points and 11 boards, while Mike Bibby finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.

Atlanta could have clinched a playoff spot with a win, after Indiana lost to Charlotte on Saturday. The Hawks still hold a two-game lead over the Pacers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with two games left in the regular season.

Josh Childress put in a layup to put the Hawks on top, 76-74, in the first minute of the fourth quarter, and Bibby's three with 2 1/2 minutes gone extended the cushion to five, 81-76.

Another three from Bibby stretched the lead to 84-78, before the Celtics ran off six straight points and tied the game on Cassell's floater with just over five minutes remaining.

Tony Allen's pull-up jumper put the Celtics on top, 86-84, inside of four minutes to play, and Davis extended the lead to four on a hook shot with 2:55 left. After Cassell made 1-of-2 at the charity stripe to push the advantage to five, Cassell drained a jumper from the free throw line to cap the 13-0 run and give Boston a 91-84 lead with 1:48 on the clock.

Horford's jumper cut the lead to five, before Cassell and Bibby traded shots from beyond the arc, leaving Atlanta down 94-89 with 1:08 left. Cassell responded with a three on Boston's next possession, then Tony Allen drained a pair of free throws in the final 30 seconds, as Boston's bench scored all 25 of the Celtics' fourth quarter points.

Boston came out of the gates hot, shooting 60 percent from the floor in the opening quarter en route to a 30-22 lead after 12 minutes.

The Hawks opened the second quarter on a 13-4 run to take a 35-34 lead on Zaza Pachulia's layup just over 3 1/2 minutes in, but the Celtics rebounded with the next eight points and closed the half strong to take a 55-44 lead into the locker room.

Atlanta fought back early in the third quarter, and used seven straight points to tie the game, 61-61, when Josh Smith converted a three-point play just before the halfway mark of the stanza.

Johnson's jumper put the Hawks in front, 65-63, with 5:48 left in the third, and the squads traded the lead back-and-forth for the remainder of the period, with Horford's jumper at the buzzer sending the game to the fourth quarter tied, 74-74.

Game Notes

The Celtics shot 47.2 percent from the field and held Atlanta to 43.2 percent shooting...The Celtics made 26-of-29 at the charity stripe, while the Hawks were just 15-of-24 from the foul line...Smith added 17 points for the Hawks...Atlanta finishes its season with a home game with the Magic followed by a road contest in Miami...Boston travels to New York on Monday, then hosts New Jersey to finish the regular season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.